The Glade 4.0

"Turn the lights down, the party just got wilder."
It is currently Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:33 am

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 16 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Quarantine
PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:08 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:59 am
Posts: 3872
Location: 63368
I really don't understand the overreach of some governors in imposing restrictions on movement and assembly of folks. There are protests, as there should be, but how can anyone criticize the protesters? There are fundamental rights being challenged!

Restricting a healthy person's right to assembly and other freedoms because they might have the virus and they might transmit it is no different than illegal search and seizure because someone might be a criminal.

I'm very "at risk" so I have voluntarily isolated myself from society, but if I wanted to walk down Main Street at noon, I'd damn sure walk down Main Street. I'm just amazed that everyone isn't pushing back against these restrictions. Where's the SCOTUS challenges?

_________________
In time, this too shall pass.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:33 am 
Offline
Bull Moose
User avatar

Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:36 pm
Posts: 7507
Location: Last Western Stop of the Pony Express
I am also very at risk, so I isolate myself as much as possible. Unfortunately I still have to go to the clinic three times a week so life will continue to have some risk. So it goes.

The Governors have the power to impose the restrictions, it isn't actually overreach. They are trying to protect the citizenry, everyone, but especially the mist vulnerable. The suspension of the right to free assembly is allowed in certain circumstances, such as what we are now facing.

In my opinion, the protesters are being selfish and annoying, and willfully disobeying the rule of common sense. Putting yourself in harm's way to make a political point is a Darwin candidacy move. As the protests are being organized and paid for by the mega-rich, what are they actually protesting for? The right to be exploited?

Already lost a couple of very long ago friends to this bug. More of my friends are mourning people important to them. This isn't a political game, this is a pandemic. Safety first and work toward the eradication of the active bug moving around.

Do not harm others for your own selfish whims.

_________________
The U. S. Constitution doesn't guarantee happiness, only the pursuit of it. You have to catch up with it yourself. B. Franklin

"A mind needs books like a sword needs a whetstone." -- Tyrion Lannister, A Game of Thrones


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:19 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:59 am
Posts: 3872
Location: 63368
Micheal wrote:
The suspension of the right to free assembly is allowed in certain circumstances, such as what we are now facing.

What exactly are we facing, other than panic? There's been more deaths attributable to the flu than Covid-19. Even if the number of deaths were to double, more have died from the flu in some years. Hell, there's 1.2 million deaths in an average year due to car accidents, so by definition they're totally avoidable. 3,287 deaths per day. This is all panic and hysteria.

I'd like to see a challenge to what I see as a terrible overreach of governmental power.
Micheal wrote:
In my opinion, the protesters are being selfish and annoying, and willfully disobeying the rule of common sense.

Common sense says don't let the government take away your rights without a fight.

_________________
In time, this too shall pass.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:59 pm 
Offline
The Game Master.
User avatar

Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:01 pm
Posts: 3716
Taskiss wrote:
Micheal wrote:
The suspension of the right to free assembly is allowed in certain circumstances, such as what we are now facing.

What exactly are we facing, other than panic? There's been more deaths attributable to the flu than Covid-19. Even if the number of deaths were to double, more have died from the flu in some years. Hell, there's 1.2 million deaths in an average year due to car accidents, so by definition they're totally avoidable. 3,287 deaths per day. This is all panic and hysteria.

I'd like to see a challenge to what I see as a terrible overreach of governmental power.
Micheal wrote:
In my opinion, the protesters are being selfish and annoying, and willfully disobeying the rule of common sense.

Common sense says don't let the government take away your rights without a fight.


Where did you get that stat on car accidents?

Also - COVID19 is looking at 2019 flu deaths in the rear view mirror and can't even see it.


Finally - it doesn't matter what those other flat numbers are. They're baked into society. COVID19 is new. The novelty is the critical factor. If this had emerged in 1950 and been around 70 years, it'd just be part of society right now. It didn't, so it isn't. New things with meaningful impacts can shock the system.


The problem with the argument of "we could just voluntarily isolate those at risk" is that People Are Idiots. Most people have no **** clue how to actually reduce risk, or are non-compliant, or intentionally increase risk. So things have had to be mandatory. I'm not aware of many things we currently consider in modern society as "rights" to have been suppressed during this pandemic. If you DO consider those things to have been suppressed, I would likely argue that they were suppressed prior to COVID19.

_________________
“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:21 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:59 am
Posts: 3872
Location: 63368
DFK! wrote:
Where did you get that stat on car accidents?

google world car death rate and see all the sites like https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/
Quote:
Also - COVID19 is looking at 2019 flu deaths in the rear view mirror and can't even see it.

an average of 389 000 respiratory deaths are associated with influenza globally each year, Covid-19 mortality is just around 208,000
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

a 2017 study indicated there were 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone. Covid-19 hasn't reached such proportions and I'd guess it isn't going to... but it may. Thing is, Covid-19 mostly targets the at-risk. Folks like me are just waiting for a stiff breeze to put us in the ground. It's not taking out many healthy folks. I'd say that fact alone makes the flu many times more dangerous to society. I'd also say that this year's flu deaths will be reduced by about the same numbers as Covid-19 kills. I'd die if I caught the flu or the creeping crud. Thing is, statistically, I've got 2 years left anyway since I'm just about to pass year 1 of the 3 someone with IPF gets. This isn't something to stop the world for.

Quote:
The novelty is the critical factor. If this had emerged in 1950 and been around 70 years, it'd just be part of society right now. It didn't, so it isn't. New things with meaningful impacts can shock the system.

Sure, that's why I identified that there is more emotional hysterics than facts causing the panic.

Quote:
The problem with the argument of "we could just voluntarily isolate those at risk" is that People Are Idiots. Most people have no **** clue how to actually reduce risk, or are non-compliant, or intentionally increase risk. So things have had to be mandatory. I'm not aware of many things we currently consider in modern society as "rights" to have been suppressed during this pandemic. If you DO consider those things to have been suppressed, I would likely argue that they were suppressed prior to COVID19.
Healthy people are being cited for assembling in groups at stores, parks, beaches and churches. HEALTHY people. It's assumed that some will be ill and transmit the disease, but it's not proven.

It's no different than citing people for assuming they'll one day break the law.

_________________
In time, this too shall pass.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:18 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:41 pm
Posts: 1012
Auto accidents are not contagious. And certainly not contagious when asymptomatic. People can be shedding SARS-CoV-2 for weeks and not know it (vs. not very long for flu). And I think they're going to go back and find that a number of strokes, pulmonary embolisms, etc were actually COVID-19 carriers.

Also... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... COVID.html

_________________
When he's underwater does he get wet? Or does the water get him instead?


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:52 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:59 am
Posts: 3872
Location: 63368
Serienya wrote:
Auto accidents are not contagious.
No, but they're preventable and since the stay-at-home orders haven't got a clue if folks are contagious or not, I'm addressing the same criteria I believe they are - an effort to prevent bad things from happening
Quote:
And certainly not contagious when asymptomatic. People can be shedding SARS-CoV-2 for weeks and not know it (vs. not very long for flu). And I think they're going to go back and find that a number of strokes, pulmonary embolisms, etc were actually COVID-19 carriers.

Also... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... COVID.html
Like I said, you get folks like me, we're just waiting for a stiff breeze to knock us over dead. Even the flu vaccine won't work if your immune system is seriously compromised. If I get Covid-19, I'll die and I'll get a tick in the "cover-19" column, but the real reason I'm dead is because of my IPF. Other folks will die because of their heart disease, their COPD, old age or whatever, but it'll tally up in the Covid column. If you're healthy, you've got a great chance of not having any issues at all if you get this disease.

I'm totally in favor of people deciding they're going to isolate themselves for any reason they want. I'm just against the hysterical panic being displayed by the government by shutting down public property and citing folks for refusing to follow their guidelines on privately owned property.

Quote:
No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

I want due process - these rules need to be challenged in the courts and rulings handed down.

Dead is dead, the threat to worry about most is the one with the highest body count, and that isn't covid-19.

_________________
In time, this too shall pass.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Quarantine
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:33 pm 
Offline
Commence Primary Ignition
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 am
Posts: 15711
Location: Combat Information Center
The problems we are facing are not those of restriction, in and of themselves. They are of overreach in A) some places, and some specific restrictions and B) in enforcement even of reasonable restrictions.

Those, however, are localized issues and can be dealt with as localized issues. It is important to remember that the state has far more generalized police power than the Federal government. Arresting people for playing in their own yard with their own kids, for example. is completely unacceptable. So are some of the excessive fines. This is not a reason why enforcement is not okay; it is a reason why excessive fines hoping to plug funding gaps (and make no mistake, some places are doing that now even more than before) is not. But again, these are localized.

Of greater concern is economic collapse. particularly the danger to the food supply chain, and the available medical resources. The point of all this is the spread the curve out (lower it), not reduce the area underneath, which is much harder.

If the food supply chain starts to collapse, if people are facing loss of their homes or inability to feed their family, or if the medical system starts deteriorating from lack of income - or if the local government no longer has the tax revenue to enforce measures - then the lockdowns WILL end. They will collapse of their own weight. Some of this is already showing sins of happening, and quickly.

Ultimately, you'll get your rights one way or the other, but the idea is to get them the least bad way. An orderly re-opening that avoids the collapse of essential services is... well, essential.

What is most important is that everyone realize there is no good solution. There are less bad ones. We are not going to simply let the disease spread and ignore it; as DFK! pointed out these are not baked-in deaths and illnesses. As Serienya pointed out, it is contagious (unlike gun deaths...). However, we now have the food supply being held open by the DPA. Hospitals are running out of funds as they stand empty in many places. Re-opening is going to happen, period, and people are going to die from the disease. Period. End of story. Food, water, power, medical care, and other essential services MUST remain open no matter what, and if closing the rest of the economy is endangering them, the economy WILL open. No one is going to muster their National Guard to enforce one without food, water, power, and medical care; it simply cannot be done. This isn't my opinion; it's simply what has to happen.

This disease has killed about as many Americans as the Viet Nam war did, and a lot faster. That simply can't be ignored. On the other hand, neither can the effects on very basic services; forget lost jobs and livelihoods and such. No one needs to be screaming "RIGHTS!!"; your rights won't keep you or your mom from getting sick. No one needs to be screaming "SCIENCE!!" either; science won't stop someone from blowing your face off to get to your refrigerator.

There are two sides to this debate, and anyone that thinks balance is anything but mandatory better realize, the other side of this debate will **** kill you.

None of that is my opinion.

My opinion is, **** China. **** them and the horse they rode in on. I'm sure you guys are sick of hearing me say **** like this over the years, but I hope things don't get out of control. What are those **** doing? Sailing their shitty carrier around near Taiwan. They ought to consider themselves lucky keys aren't getting turned in silos right now, and I don't just mean ours. I don't think the Brits, French, or the Russians are too happy about this bullshit either.

_________________
"Kind-hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed" - On War


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:57 pm 
Offline
The Game Master.
User avatar

Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:01 pm
Posts: 3716
@DE - Yep.

@Taskiss - It appears you don't actually understand disease epidemiology, don't care to learn, and want to basically advocate for "the cull" to be national policy. Obviously, everybody is entitled to their opinion, but I guess I don't need to engage with you on this since you don't really seem to care.

_________________
“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Quarantine
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:13 am 
Offline
The Dancing Cat
User avatar

Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:21 pm
Posts: 9348
Location: Ohio
Quote:
Of greater concern is economic collapse. particularly the danger to the food supply chain, and the available medical resources. The point of all this is the spread the curve out (lower it), not reduce the area underneath, which is much harder.


This is what everyone in favor of lockdowns has lost sight of or misunderstood imho. They think if we all stay locked up long enough then science will magic up a potion that will cure everyone without any further deaths, despite every credible medical professional stating 12-18 months in the very best scenario.

People are going to die and most of those deaths were unpreventable as soon as this became a pandemic. Flattening the curve just drags those deaths out over a longer period of time.

Literally the only deaths that flattening the curve prevent are people who could not get medical help because services would be overwhelmed otherwise, but now we are seeing that might be a fallacy as well since people have stopped seeking medical care for other ailments and most hospitals have stopped administering a lot of maintenance/preventative medicine during the lockdown.

_________________
Quote:
In comic strips the person on the left always speaks first. - George Carlin


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Quarantine
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:20 am 
Offline
Commence Primary Ignition
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 am
Posts: 15711
Location: Combat Information Center
Hopwin wrote:
Quote:
Of greater concern is economic collapse. particularly the danger to the food supply chain, and the available medical resources. The point of all this is the spread the curve out (lower it), not reduce the area underneath, which is much harder.


This is what everyone in favor of lockdowns has lost sight of or misunderstood imho. They think if we all stay locked up long enough then science will magic up a potion that will cure everyone without any further deaths, despite every credible medical professional stating 12-18 months in the very best scenario.


I'm going to coin here, for purposes of discussion, a term: Person Of Significant Understanding, or POSU. This is so I can type less words, because as we all know, DE already types too many words. POSU, as I'm defining it, is a person who ranges from "advanced level of layman's understanding" all the way to Dr. Fauci. This is because "expert" is largely meaningless; Dr. Fauci is an an expert at the forefront of the medical side; he is no more than a very advanced layman on the economic side.

Now, insofar as people below this floor - for whatever reason; they may be stupid, or just looking at wrong information, or just terrified and unable to really take in new information effectively - are demanding lockdowns, I agree. You can go on Twitter or YouTube and find plenty of angry Caitlins, Emmas, Abigails, and whatever the trendy boy names are (I only had girls, so I didn't learn them) loudly demanding this sort of thing in between tweeting about their vegan lunch during lockdown or revisiting their coming-out video.

You can also find POSUs doing so, and for a variety of reasons.

One of the most prominent is that they're a medical person and this is their professional opinion, which, of course, they are entitled to, although I do take it as questionable when some random nurse is selected to be on TV when she's been awake for 20 hours and wonders when the nightmare is going to be over. Other medical people, such as doctors, I'm sure mostly understand the consequences of the lockdown; they just don't consider those problems to be their job. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx both appear to be in this area. The side effect of this, though, is that when other considerations that aren't their job are considered by the decision-makers, people run screaming to the "SCIENCE!" and "IGNORING THE DOCTORS!" battlements, which brings me to the nest type of POSU.

The second type simply doesn't care. These people are the reverse of the positions Taskiss is apparently taking; although they may have a good grasp of the facts they simply don't grasp the implications. This is why I use the general term POSU - there are definitely prominent people who are scientists advocating that we must remain in full lockdown until there is a vaccine. This is simply impossible; it is not merely politically impossible; it is literally impossible. No amount of government money can make it possible; there has to be stuff to buy with the money. This sort of person either does not understand, or has forgotten, that the economy is not plug-and-play; it cannot be disassembled into component parts that can be run independently of each other. We've tried to do precisely that for a little over a month and the limit is very clearly in sight - and it's sooner than May 30th, although those states that
are starting to open may stave off disaster for the whole country a little longer.

The other type is basically Democratic politicians, most notably AOC, but also quite a few others who clearly actively want the economy to fail so that they can institute "structural change". Note that the President isn't really relevant here; if it were Hillary they'd just have an easier time trying to do it. Some of this is whackjobbery (basically anything AOC says) and some of it is blatant vote-buying efforts (Pelosi's **** on the stimulus bill and idea to just give out $2,000 a month to everyone until employment reaches "pre-COVID levels" at which point that money is going nowhere.) Some of it is also the Press, who are generally more focused on simply ***** about the President and want the lockdown to last only because he wants people (generally) to open up, with the "but not too quickly" part carefully left unmentioned. The press seems not to realize that the economy is a danger to them too; when they start running out of ad revenue they'll figure it out pretty fast, though.

Which category, though, is ultimately irrelevant, because this is not really a political question. Ultimately, the economic shutdown is starting to endanger basic services, and if allowed to go past a certain point will ALSO result in mass COVID deaths, AND will result in large numbers of deaths (and all kinds of other hardships) from other sources. The problem is really not people being stupid or ill-educated; the problem lies heavily with people who are neither but who are simply not capable or not willing to look at all of the picture at once, or else who are turning what is a distinctly apolitical equation into a political one out of sheer habit or partisan cussedness.

To illustrate, and I hope DFK! will forgive me for revealing this, but one point of agreement on our call was that we get very tired of defending the President, but we constantly find ourselves forced to because the criticisms tend to be even more outrageously stupid than anything he says. Take, for example, the hydroxychloroquine debate; the question of its efficacy is completely unrelated to what the President said. He is not a doctor, does not claim to be one, did not say it would necessarily work, and Dr. Fauci clearly explained that it was simply layman's aspirations and there was no daylight between them. On this, (and the same applies to the whole "disinfectant" thing), there is no excuse whatsoever for anyone taking what he said AS advice, much less taking his advice because he was giving none, and it is abundantly clear he is not qualified to do so.

Yet we get constant assertions that people might be taking the stuff or doctors might be over prescribing it, or people might be drinking bleach because of something he said, or else misrepresenting a spike in calls to the poison control center as people actually drinking bleach because the President said so (to date, I am aware of no PCC call for that actual reason). Anyone who did so is already so astoundingly stupid that it's amazing they survived this long, was trying to commit suicide or murder (as it now appears the fish tank cleaner lady may have), or if they actually were a doctor, had no business being one and ought to be thrown in prison.

Donald Trump does not have mind control powers or magical persuasion abilities. He is not a sorcerer. This kind of argument, put forth seriously by our media every day, rests on literal magical thinking, wherein the President's words compel both laypeople and medical professionals to abandon ALL judgement in a rush to heed him. This includes all the **** out there might respond "Well Trump's supporters listen to him that way..." or words to that effect. You're ascribing literal magic powers to the President over 100-150 million people, right before or right after you whine about "listen to the scientists!"

Quote:
People are going to die and most of those deaths were unpreventable as soon as this became a pandemic. Flattening the curve just drags those deaths out over a longer period of time.

Literally the only deaths that flattening the curve prevent are people who could not get medical help because services would be overwhelmed otherwise, but now we are seeing that might be a fallacy as well since people have stopped seeking medical care for other ailments and most hospitals have stopped administering a lot of maintenance/preventative medicine during the lockdown.


Fundamentally, our politicians (on both sides), press, and medical establishment are more fearful of triage deaths than any other kind of death. There is an undertone when we talk about death in this country that we are somehow supposed to be living in a post-death society, and that there is an unlimited supply of medical care for everyone that, if only somehow they can get it, will always result in a long, happy life. We have an irresponsible press that was CLEARLY licking its chops in anticipation of the first person to die because we ran out of ventilators; forget where they would have placed the political blame. Our press establishment is positively ghoulish in its search for human suffering to lay blame for - and lives in terror of a lack of problems, and the accompanying viewership or readership, and revenue.

Now, once again, COVID deaths were not baked into society. This is an unassailable point; something CLEARLY had to be done, and the strongest defense of the lockdown measures at the time they were implemented was that we had no time to plan much of anything else. This applies to everything; I would love to ***** about the shitty homeschooling program my kids are undergoing, but the school district cannot be blamed for throwing something together half-assed because they had no time to do better - certainly not at a task no one had ever attempted before. For all the fussing about how "this should have been seen in January!" (from people who were loudly denying its importance in January), even if we had started a month sooner it probably would not have been a lot better.

Even if, best-case scenario, we had immediately detected the Chinese deception and the government had correctly anticipated what was going to happen here and begun planning and working immediately, the amount of time was wildly inadequate. The only real chance we ever had was if the Chinese had been honest, and they were not. There was no time for science to be done; research is not accomplished in a few weeks. There was no time to plan the shutdown of something like 70% of the consumer economy.

Again, it comes back to our press. The press is mostly incompetent boobs whose job is to oversimplify things they don't understand in the first place, and who are attention-seekers. If they have accomplished one thing successfully, it is to disguise the enormity of A) the complexity of the problem we faced and B) the second-, third- and further-order effects of doing so, and they will continue doing so until the consequences literally club them across the face like a 2x4, at which point they will find a conveneint target (I have a feeling I know which) to blame it all on - assuming, at that point, they are not standing in food lines as well, or suddenly re-thinking whether all the gun control town halls were such a great idea.

Well, so much for fewer words.

_________________
"Kind-hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed" - On War


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Quarantine
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:51 pm 
Offline
The Dancing Cat
User avatar

Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:21 pm
Posts: 9348
Location: Ohio
Diamondeye wrote:
Well, so much for fewer words.


You talk a lot but that doesn't mean you are wrong.

I would argue the press is at least partially trash because we as a society lack either the capacity or patience for long-form descriptions of issues, topics and problems. I see this at work as well, if a process has broken down there is very little desire to see a detailed analysis of the factors that lead to the breakdown, instead everyone wants bullet-points (preferably no more than three) of what happened and how to fix it. This can of course lead to problems down the road since you've only papered over the surface-level issue without ever reaching the true underlying problems, which is true in both business and society.

_________________
Quote:
In comic strips the person on the left always speaks first. - George Carlin


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Quarantine
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:59 pm 
Offline
Commence Primary Ignition
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 am
Posts: 15711
Location: Combat Information Center
Hopwin wrote:
Diamondeye wrote:
Well, so much for fewer words.


You talk a lot but that doesn't mean you are wrong.


I've discovered since the Glade has become less active that the main reason I post such long answers is because I tend to think of related ideas that I then feel like I need to develop in the same post. I used to think it was because I was trying to anticipate counterarguments and head them off in advance, but I feel like that wasn't actually accurate; mostly people just thought of different counters than I did.

Quote:
I would argue the press is at least partially trash because we as a society lack either the capacity or patience for long-form descriptions of issues, topics and problems. I see this at work as well, if a process has broken down there is very little desire to see a detailed analysis of the factors that lead to the breakdown, instead everyone wants bullet-points (preferably no more than three) of what happened and how to fix it. This can of course lead to problems down the road since you've only papered over the surface-level issue without ever reaching the true underlying problems, which is true in both business and society.


I would agree with that. I would also argue that we've turned "Freedom of the Press" into a sense of entitlement on the part of the press to A) have information and B) publish it while C) being immune to criticism from all quarters. Freedom of the Press is supposed to be a freedom for everyone; we've somehow allowed it to turn people who do that sort of thing for a living into a sort of unaccountable inquisitorial service, entitled to prosecute anything and anyone they don't like in public witch trials. Freedom of the Press may indeed be essential to a free society, but that does not in any way mean the press we actually have is, or is irreplaceable.

_________________
"Kind-hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed" - On War


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2020 8:50 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:59 am
Posts: 3872
Location: 63368
DFK! wrote:
@Taskiss - It appears you don't actually understand disease epidemiology
nope, not at all. I just looked at the options developed nations came up with to deal with this crap and weighed the pro's and cons based on what I considered logical priorities. I guess you think you've got a better handle on it than the ones that came up with those options, but I gotta tell you, some random dfk on the internet claiming to know more about the subject than the guys in Sweeden ... no, I don't buy it. Sorry.

There's no cure, there's no vaccine and there won't be one any time soon. Herd immunity is the only tool in the tool box, vaccines just artificially provide the social benefits of herd immunity. How many more will die because the benefits of that phenomenon are being withheld? How many are going to have to suffer isolation for however much longer because some feel they are more knowing than God? There's no claim that there will be less deaths with the current shutdown, the claim is "flatten the curve" to keep the health care system from being overwhelmed... yet, most hospitals across the nation are empty. https://www.newsweek.com/most-us-hospit ... on-1500028 ... and then there's another little oopsie waiting to happen when a vaccine is developed - it'll be fast tracked with insufficient testing because !!!!OMG WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING!!!! Clinical trials done right take years, so they say. Rushing one through, well, it'll be interesting to compare the outcomes. This isn't an issue of saving lives, and it's not an issue of lacking resources, it's a logistic issue of not having resources immediately available where they're needed most. But sure, let's shut down the world 'cause we can't get a logistics issue resolved.

You don't have to know anything about disease epi-whatshits, you just have to know the track record of consequences when people are hysterical and panicking. Look what they're doing to the economy just to keep from overwhelming hospitals that are now empty. If the crap I have had a cure for a million dollars, I'd pass on it 'cause I'm more concerned about my wife's financial future than living a couple more years. Adults make that sort of decision for those that depend on them. Time to adult-up, folks!

And DE - comparing the number of deaths to Viet Nam only holds water when you ignore the facts. Those that died in 'Nam were young and healthy, probably had, on average, another 60 years to live, to contribute to society. Morally, all lives are worth the same, but they're not the same pragmatically. Those dying now are probably losing an order of magnitude fewer years of life. Medical considerations always include those priorities... dollars go to research based on the best bang for the buck, and the amount of money being burned through for the sake of appeasing the bleeding hearts that want to save an old bunny from a wolf would be much better spent almost any other way than how it is.

This is a **** **** show, one that I won't have to clean up after, but my kids, their kids, and probably most of you will have to. Enjoy!

_________________
In time, this too shall pass.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:03 am 
Offline
Commence Primary Ignition
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 am
Posts: 15711
Location: Combat Information Center
Taskiss wrote:
DFK! wrote:
@Taskiss - It appears you don't actually understand disease epidemiology
nope, not at all. I just looked at the options developed nations came up with to deal with this crap and weighed the pro's and cons based on what I considered logical priorities. I guess you think you've got a better handle on it than the ones that came up with those options, but I gotta tell you, some random dfk on the internet claiming to know more about the subject than the guys in Sweeden ... no, I don't buy it. Sorry.

There's no cure, there's no vaccine and there won't be one any time soon.


DFK! knows better than those who came up with the lockdown plan at the time because he's had about 10 weeks to observe the facts that they didn't. The huge problem with expert opinion in all this is that the experts have not had anywhere near enough time and data, and have been doing their work on the fly. It is not their fault but it has greatly degraded their ability to advise properly.

As for the vaccine, Pfizer and Oxford are now apparently significantly ahead of where everyone though, and we may have a vaccine much sooner than we originally estimated.

Quote:
And DE - comparing the number of deaths to Viet Nam only holds water when you ignore the facts. Those that died in 'Nam were young and healthy, probably had, on average, another 60 years to live, to contribute to society.


I'm aware. However, wars and epidemics are comparable in that the losses are not baked into society. They are extraordinary deaths, and that carries costs with it all their own. We cannot simply face-tank those deaths easily; part of that reason is that its politically impossible, but we live in a republic, so politics actually do matter.

_________________
"Kind-hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed" - On War


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:27 pm 
Offline
The Game Master.
User avatar

Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:01 pm
Posts: 3716
@DE - good post. No, I don't mind you sharing how much I hate defending Trump. :)

_________________
“The duty of a patriot is to protect his country from its government.” - Thomas Paine


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 16 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group