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 Post subject: Coronavirus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:10 am 
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I don't know who still comes here besides DE, Wwen and myself. But figured I might as well start up a thread for this.

Where I live (Ohio) was one of the first states to respond quickly and strongly to the coronavirus outbreak, our governor closed our schools down for a minimum of three weeks last week and has had daily pressers with his chief medical adviser and coronavirus task force. Since then he has gone on to enact the following restrictions:
  • Declared a statewide emergency
  • No gatherings of more than 100 people
  • Nursing homes are on a visitor lock down
  • Closing all restaurants and bars (exempting carry-out orders)
  • No gatherings of more than 50 people

In the coming days he has stated his intention to implement the following additional restrictions:
  • Closing the schools for the remainder of the year
  • Closing all day cares

Now I fully understand the intention of saving lives behind these measures, but it is starting to get a bit unconstitutional around here and the economic costs of these policies is going to be staggering. Most restaurants and bars are small businesses that will not be able to afford these closures and when they fold up shop and their staff are all laid off then this actual economy (as opposed to the stock market) is going to crash and burn for at least a decade. If we look at what has happened to similarly crashed industries, auto workers and farmers, we see a suicide rate and dependence abuse problem so severe that it has lowered the life-expectancy of suburban Americans and these business owners are about to join the ranks of these desperate people. Additionally a second wave of unemployed working parents will be not far behind as they find themselves forced to leave their workplace to stay home with children who are suddenly out of school for potentially six months until the next school year starts.

So in a long-winded post, what is the cost of these measures that will admittedly not stop the coronavirus but only slow the spread and flatten the curve? Once draconian measures like this are taken, at what point is it safe to lift them again? What does success look like when in the best case scenario a vaccine is over a year away?

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Last edited by Hopwin on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:59 am, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:43 am 
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IMO, I've heard some scary stuff about the virus sticking with you and maybe even being neurological, but I don't know if it just rumor or not. I assume we'll know more in time. Not enough data collected. All we can do now is try to prevent spread.

I'd say that extensive debt and tax forgiveness will be in order to help reduce the economic effects of shutting things down. Helping small business and people is more important than wall street or the central banks. Of course, it will probably be them that get bailed out....

https://herald-review.com/news/local/mo ... 7d696.html

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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:04 pm 
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Ive not heard of what if any enforcement mechanism would be used in Pa (Montgomery county where I am) but I cant imagine they would have the resources to enforce more than a token of those who would be in breach.

I really wouldn't mind at all if the bozos who dont know enough to isolate themselves got sick at all and then those places could lose customers, get the blame from those midwits. Hell I wouldnt even mind if they brought it home to seriously impact the junk dna that spawned them. The thing is they wouldn't just do that because idiots are idiots.

I am wfh on a week by week basis but I have a cold so I'd being that anyway. Post nasal drips sucks when you try to sleep.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:16 pm 
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I thought muppets were immune to disease?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:56 pm 
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I don't have much time at the moment, but it bears mention that states have vastly greater powers to enforce quarantines and other restrictions than the federal government does.

Also, is it 10p or 50?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:40 pm 
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Might be down to 10 now

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:22 am 
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I live and work a few miles from the Life Care Center in Kirkland WA where more than half of the US deaths from the virus have occured.

Our Governer has implemented many restrictions on public gatherings and closed schools. Most businesses are on a WFH basis (mine included).

If if goes on long, it's going to be a huge financial burden on hourly workers, service industry folks, etc... I think it's going to take a lot more than tax forgiveness, and stimulus packages to get through this in the short term. Landlords, banks, utilities, etc, are going to have go easy on people who can't pay. Let folks get back to work and come up with some kind of plan to work though the debt that isn't punitive.

As far as enforcing the restrictions on gatherings, restaurant closings, etc, there is no way that can actually be done. The states may have the authority, but they don't have the resources to police such things (short of calling in the National Guard). Local and state police have been clear that you should not call them to report violations of the emergency policies, and that they should email the governors office to report violations.

Lastly, there is a special little corner of hell for people who hoard toilet paper (and the media who report on it - causing more panic).


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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:25 am 
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The entire world self-isolating for the sake of the 20% of at-risk populous is ludicrous. Kids are not at risk, healthy adults under 50 aren't at terrible risk, why should they be isolated?

A kid gets chicken pox, the mothers all want to get together and have a chicken pox party to force exposure so they can get it and be immunized early instead of later when it's more damaging. Why not do that for the healthy percentage of the population now? Get it, get over it, and get back to work.

Honestly, the at-risk are the least valuable to society. Full disclosure - I was diagnosed with IPF a year ago. I call it like I see it.

Also, Greta Thunberg would approve of 20% reduction in energy usage/pollution.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:20 am 
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The main problem is this is not a repeatable solution to the problem. Let's face it, how many of these sorts of scares do we experience? Are we going to shut down the American economy for a month or so every couple of years? We can, but I don't think anyone realizes the secondary (and tertiary, quatenary, etc.) effects that will result.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:40 am 
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shuyung wrote:
The main problem is this is not a repeatable solution to the problem. Let's face it, how many of these sorts of scares do we experience? Are we going to shut down the American economy for a month or so every couple of years? We can, but I don't think anyone realizes the secondary (and tertiary, quatenary, etc.) effects that will result.

It seems to me that this is not even a solution to the current problem. Already 1.5 million people have lost their jobs in under a full week, those people need money to pay their bills and buy food not to mention pay for their health insurance. The effects of that spending dropping out of a consumer-based economy are going to be amplified throughout the whole system. In the meantime now that the virus is in the population it cannot be extracted, so whenever the restrictions are lifted (assuming we can get sufficient people to actually follow them) we are going to see a spike in cases at that time.

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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:51 am 
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Taskiss wrote:
The entire world self-isolating for the sake of the 20% of at-risk populous is ludicrous. Kids are not at risk, healthy adults under 50 aren't at terrible risk, why should they be isolated?

A kid gets chicken pox, the mothers all want to get together and have a chicken pox party to force exposure so they can get it and be immunized early instead of later when it's more damaging. Why not do that for the healthy percentage of the population now? Get it, get over it, and get back to work.

Honestly, the at-risk are the least valuable to society. Full disclosure - I was diagnosed with IPF a year ago. I call it like I see it.

Also, Greta Thunberg would approve of 20% reduction in energy usage/pollution.

I don't know why progressives would just consider this a great part of the Green New Deal. I mean think of the reduction in carbon footprint?

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:48 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
shuyung wrote:
The main problem is this is not a repeatable solution to the problem. Let's face it, how many of these sorts of scares do we experience? Are we going to shut down the American economy for a month or so every couple of years? We can, but I don't think anyone realizes the secondary (and tertiary, quatenary, etc.) effects that will result.

It seems to me that this is not even a solution to the current problem. Already 1.5 million people have lost their jobs in under a full week, those people need money to pay their bills and buy food not to mention pay for their health insurance. The effects of that spending dropping out of a consumer-based economy are going to be amplified throughout the whole system. In the meantime now that the virus is in the population it cannot be extracted, so whenever the restrictions are lifted (assuming we can get sufficient people to actually follow them) we are going to see a spike in cases at that time.


It's not intended to be a solution; all it's intended to do is spread the initial infections out over a longer period of time in order to stand up additional medical facilities before it overwhelms the existing ones.

In my opinion, that needs to be made a lot more clear, but the problem is that there is a strong contingent still trying to sell the idea that this somehow could have all been prevented. Guess what? No one has managed to prevent it. Some countries have managed to arrest it, but only through draconian means. Too many people are still too worried about blame placing; the only real blame to be placed is on the Chinese government, not only for their deceptiveness, but also for allowing these wildlife "wet markets" to exist.

The press, in particular, is demonstrating that it simply isn't needed. Freedom of the press is needed; the press as an industry is not. These people are obviously rooting for a catastrophe at this point simply in order to sell a narrative. There is simply no excuse for being a professional journalist any more; the entire profession is actively detrimental to a free society.

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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:52 pm 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Hopwin wrote:
shuyung wrote:
The main problem is this is not a repeatable solution to the problem. Let's face it, how many of these sorts of scares do we experience? Are we going to shut down the American economy for a month or so every couple of years? We can, but I don't think anyone realizes the secondary (and tertiary, quatenary, etc.) effects that will result.

It seems to me that this is not even a solution to the current problem. Already 1.5 million people have lost their jobs in under a full week, those people need money to pay their bills and buy food not to mention pay for their health insurance. The effects of that spending dropping out of a consumer-based economy are going to be amplified throughout the whole system. In the meantime now that the virus is in the population it cannot be extracted, so whenever the restrictions are lifted (assuming we can get sufficient people to actually follow them) we are going to see a spike in cases at that time.


It's not intended to be a solution; all it's intended to do is spread the initial infections out over a longer period of time in order to stand up additional medical facilities before it overwhelms the existing ones.


Where is this work being done? I see some navy ships rolling into Seattle and NYC but otherwise I see no capacity increases or supplies arriving. Right now it appears to be stalling in the hopes a miracle cure can be developed and deployed by.... um... ah wait there is No end date or stated end game for these measures other than when the people in power determine it is all clear.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:07 am 
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Bureaucrats are hard at work making sure everyone checked off the right boxes on their forms. The paperwork has to be in order before we can build any more facilities or offer any treatment.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:46 am 
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https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/ ... 9952263170


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:44 pm 
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Part of me wants to spend a lot of time weighing in on this, but I'm literally living it about 14-16 hours a day right now.

So, in the words of the intrepid Inigo Montoya, "let me sum up."

Taskiss is generally incorrect that we should just ignore this and let the chips fall where they may. Analysis of mortality rate if we did that ranges from a number as low as 50,000 deaths and as high as 5,000,000, with most CDC estimates (to the extent you trust them) in the 1.7-2.5 million range. In 3 months.

That isn't something baked into our society and thus not something we can afford.


Now, regarding the cost of the shutdowns, the most reasonable analysis I saw on that indicated that the common ballpark of mortality in the US at 1.7-2.5 million deaths, plus morbidity impacts of long-term health damage in those who recover, may be as high as $4t. So, logically, around the time the isolation protocols cost us around $3.5t, we should back off because the residual will take us to $4t, at which point the cure is worse than the disease.

Problem is, humans aren't very logical. So it's more likely we'll stay on lockdown longer than we need to from a purely economic and utilitarian point of view in order to "save lives."

I won't get into any speculation or politicization of the issue at this time, as I literally can't abide it. My inner Duderino has no abides left.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:28 pm 
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DFK! wrote:
Taskiss is generally incorrect that we should just ignore this and let the chips fall where they may.

Not exactly my position - isolate those at risk, let herd immunity work it's thing on the healthy like it did for smallpox. I've yet to see any simulation on that technique.

Yes, some will die. Some already do when they contract the flu. Interesting thing is, even knowing that the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu, only about 40% get the shot.

As for “what we can afford”, well, we can’t afford to give up the future of this country to save the past. The young and strong are the future. I and others like me are the past. Heck, I was told a year ago that I had 3 years to live, statistically. Now that doesn’t mean I’m rolling over and giving up, oh HELL no.... I lost 50 lbs and I’m running 3 times a week, but if I get this crap I’m dead dead dead. So what? I’m not the future. Society needs to stop investing in me and double down it’s investment in the young and healthy, and that means getting back to work as quickly as possible.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:53 am 
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DFK! wrote:
Now, regarding the cost of the shutdowns, the most reasonable analysis I saw on that indicated that the common ballpark of mortality in the US at 1.7-2.5 million deaths, plus morbidity impacts of long-term health damage in those who recover, may be as high as $4t. So, logically, around the time the isolation protocols cost us around $3.5t, we should back off because the residual will take us to $4t, at which point the cure is worse than the disease.

US GDP is $20t and we are projecting a negative -24% GDP for the quarter so are we already passed the $3.5t you back of the enveloped?

To be clear I don't think we should do nothing or turn the elderly and vulnerable lose to die but the trajectory we are on is going to bankrupt the nation and lead to riots and civil unrest that will probably rival the Civil War in terms of scope. We need a path to normalcy that doesn't rely on waiting 12 months for a vaccine to be developed, tested, and manufactured in sufficient quantities.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:38 pm 
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Hopwin wrote:
Where is this work being done? I see some navy ships rolling into Seattle and NYC but otherwise I see no capacity increases or supplies arriving. Right now it appears to be stalling in the hopes a miracle cure can be developed and deployed by.... um... ah wait there is No end date or stated end game for these measures other than when the people in power determine it is all clear.

I'm not sure how you would "see" these thing happening exactly, but they definitely are. There are definitely operations to build additional temporary hospital facilities and purchase and supply additional equipment, but they take at least some time. This is not an RTS. The President doesn't click a "build" button. When supplies come in, they come in on trucks like anything else; there's nothing to "see". No one has cameras out there waiting for a truckload of masks.

You might see a makeshift hospital go up, but thee is lead time for the Corps of Engineers. They have to locate and assess potential sites, for quite a few factors. For example, how about available power, water, trafficability of roads, parking space, drainage... I can go on and on. Then at least some design work has to be done, and not just for the structure, but for the power, water, drainage, toilets, parking, drainage...

People think that if they don't see instant results nothing is being done. It simply doesn't work like that.

As for an end date or stated end game, there is none because the data is still incomplete. In fact, everyitime there's even a hint of an end, the press promptly freaks out.

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 Post subject: Re: Coronavirus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:45 pm 
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I lost 50 lbs and I’m running 3 times a week


Good job. Before this all hit I was running 4 days a week, lifting twice, and doing jiu jitsu twice. Damn, I wish I had discovered jiu jitsu earlier. Now... well, running more. No jiu jitsu. :(

Start listening to Joe Rogan and Jocko Willink and you'll be a **** titan.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:41 am 
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Diamondeye wrote:
Hopwin wrote:
Where is this work being done? I see some navy ships rolling into Seattle and NYC but otherwise I see no capacity increases or supplies arriving. Right now it appears to be stalling in the hopes a miracle cure can be developed and deployed by.... um... ah wait there is No end date or stated end game for these measures other than when the people in power determine it is all clear.

I'm not sure how you would "see" these thing happening exactly, but they definitely are. There are definitely operations to build additional temporary hospital facilities and purchase and supply additional equipment, but they take at least some time. This is not an RTS. The President doesn't click a "build" button. When supplies come in, they come in on trucks like anything else; there's nothing to "see". No one has cameras out there waiting for a truckload of masks.

You might see a makeshift hospital go up, but thee is lead time for the Corps of Engineers. They have to locate and assess potential sites, for quite a few factors. For example, how about available power, water, trafficability of roads, parking space, drainage... I can go on and on. Then at least some design work has to be done, and not just for the structure, but for the power, water, drainage, toilets, parking, drainage...

People think that if they don't see instant results nothing is being done. It simply doesn't work like that.


Can you provide a link that states any of the above is occurring? I saw the Navy is deploying two hospital ships at the Federal Level and I have seen several states discussing contingency plans to convert hotels and dorms into makeshift hospitals. Where is the COE doing their work or planning on building these makeshift hospitals?

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:14 am 
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Hopwin wrote:
Can you provide a link that states any of the above is occurring? I saw the Navy is deploying two hospital ships at the Federal Level and I have seen several states discussing contingency plans to convert hotels and dorms into makeshift hospitals. Where is the COE doing their work or planning on building these makeshift hospitals?


https://news.yahoo.com/army-corp-of-engineers-races-to-provide-10000-hospital-rooms-for-coronavirus-response-223023854.html

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241383116.html

https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=Corps+Of+Engineers+Sets+Up+Coronavirus+Hospitals&qpvt=Corps+of+Engineers+sets+up+coronavirus+hospitals&FORM=EWRE

Here.

I know there's this narrative out there that everyone was sitting around with a thumb up their *** for months, but it's really not true; it simply does not work that way - and it certainly is not the case that if you haven't seen it, it must not be getting done. The job of the Corps of Engineers right now is to get the work done, call attention to what they're doing. You don't need to see it. Everyone is not sitting around with a thumb up their ***. "States discussing contingency plans" is reporter-speak for all the work I described in my previous posts, because reporters have absolutely no idea how these things work or what has to get done, so they like to imply that nothing is happening in order to get people riled up and clicking on their bullshit articles. I swear we could be having a nuclear war and someone would be asking for links that our bombers had actually taken off.

I have to give Governor Cuomo credit for generally focusing on the business at hand and not simply playing political games as his idiot mayor has done, but he, and the press need to **** stuff it with this narrative that more top-down control and direction has to come from the President. It doesn't. He talked yesterday about how supposedly during WWII the government didn't go out and ask companies to produce ships and planes and tanks, when in fact that's more or less what happened. The government may have said "you're all going to build us this much stuff", but the companies still had to design the equipment and figure out how to make it. That's why you had, for example, the B-17, and B-24 competing with each other in the heavy bomber role; Boeing and Consolidated were competitors. All the Army Air Corps cared about was having planes that met certain specifications; it didn't go to Consolidated and say "build a B-24" and hand them a blueprint.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:18 am 
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Corolinth wrote:
Bureaucrats are hard at work making sure everyone checked off the right boxes on their forms. The paperwork has to be in order before we can build any more facilities or offer any treatment.


You're an engineer. You ought to know better than this.

It turns out that when those boxes DON'T get checked and a temporary hospital has a sudden power failure and 350 ventilators stop working, that's an even bigger problem - and you'll be right back here with some snarky comment about it. Your education is what you should be using right now, not your personal cynicism about the government because one of those things has been tested and found competent, and the other is you sitting their armchair quarterbacking.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:53 am 
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Diamondeye wrote:
I know there's this narrative out there that everyone was sitting around with a thumb up their *** for months, but it's really not true; it simply does not work that way - and it certainly is not the case that if you haven't seen it, it must not be getting done. The job of the Corps of Engineers right now is to get the work done, call attention to what they're doing. You don't need to see it. Everyone is not sitting around with a thumb up their ***. "States discussing contingency plans" is reporter-speak for all the work I described in my previous posts, because reporters have absolutely no idea how these things work or what has to get done, so they like to imply that nothing is happening in order to get people riled up and clicking on their bullshit articles. I swear we could be having a nuclear war and someone would be asking for links that our bombers had actually taken off.

I have to give Governor Cuomo credit for generally focusing on the business at hand and not simply playing political games as his idiot mayor has done, but he, and the press need to **** stuff it with this narrative that more top-down control and direction has to come from the President. It doesn't. He talked yesterday about how supposedly during WWII the government didn't go out and ask companies to produce ships and planes and tanks, when in fact that's more or less what happened. The government may have said "you're all going to build us this much stuff", but the companies still had to design the equipment and figure out how to make it. That's why you had, for example, the B-17, and B-24 competing with each other in the heavy bomber role; Boeing and Consolidated were competitors. All the Army Air Corps cared about was having planes that met certain specifications; it didn't go to Consolidated and say "build a B-24" and hand them a blueprint.


Thanks for the links.

Trump holds daily press conferences for two hours, you can ***** about the media all you want to but never has he said the COE was drafting plans to turn hotels into ICUs all he does is get into a wiener-wagging contest with himself by complaining the governors don't treat him fairly but expect his cooperation and then contradict all the advice his medical advisers are giving him.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:10 am 
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Hopwin wrote:
Trump holds daily press conferences for two hours, you can ***** about the media all you want to but never has he said the COE was drafting plans to turn hotels into ICUs all he does is get into a wiener-wagging contest with himself by complaining the governors don't treat him fairly but expect his cooperation and then contradict all the advice his medical advisers are giving him.


Trump has repeatedly praised the governors on all the briefings I've watched; I'm not sure what you're referring to. I'm also not seeing him contradicting his medical advisors - in point of fact, Dr. Fauci specifically complained about the press trying to create distance between him and the President, stated there isn't any, and that this is "not helpful". Also, the criteria for whether something is getting done or not is not whether it was mentioned at the White House press briefing.

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